H1N1 circulating without being detected in pigs

The current epidemic of the H1N1 virus is relatively benign, although there have been some fatalities. While this may seem like a blessing, it is wise to remain very cautious about the epidemic.

The chief of the World Health Organization (WHO) said Friday that the Novel H1N1 swine flu virus has the potential to become even more severe and cause more fatalities.

The WHO may soon declare a full-blown pandemic of H1N1 virus. So far, at least 11,000 people have been infected in 42 countries and 86 have been killed.

In the United States, health officials reported nine deaths, 300 cases which required hospitalization, and 6,552 suspected/confirmed cases. However, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates that actual number of cases may be around 130,000 noting that only one in 20 influenza cases are reported.

Dr. Margaret Chan, head of the WHO, said the Novel H1N1 is a “subtle, sneaky virus.”

An international research team conducted a genetic analysis of the eight genes comprising the virus. From the results, it appears that the new virus has been circulating without being detected in pigs and quite possibly other animals. The team also realized the sneakiness of the virus.

It is vastly different from the strains of its ancestors. It is a hybrid of two viruses that are themselves mixtures of other viruses. One strain carries elements from viruses in pigs, birds and humans; the other virus has genes from many other types of swine viruses originating in Europe and Asia.

Apart from sneakiness, medical historians say the historical records should give everyone many reasons to be cautious. Since 1889, there have been four major pandemics worldwide. In each of them, the first wave saw illnesses that were relatively mild and few deaths occurred. Each one was followed a few months later by a second wave of more severe disease.

Most deaths occurred in the second wave, not the first. This is the reason health officials warn people to be ready for a more virulent phase of the Novel H1N1 flu epidemic.

On the other hand, this gives medical science some time to develop a vaccine that could combat the more deadly strain before it starts to circulate. The U.S. Health and Human Services Department is allocating $1 billion for the development of an effective vaccine against the novel H1N1 virus. Currently, there is none.

Safety Tips:

• Avoid bringing your hands to your eyes, nose or mouth after touching objects. The flu virus can remain viable for 8 hours after being deposited on them.

• Wash hands thoroughly with soap and water, especially after touching unfamiliar objects or after coughing or sneezing. When using gels, rub them into the hands until they’re dry.

• Use tissue to cover mouth and nose when coughing or sneezing. Throw tissue in the trash immediately after use.

• Refrain from close contact with sick people.

• Be alert and follow public health advisories regarding school closures, staying away from crowds, and other measures. Influenza spreads mainly through person-to-person contact.

• Keep yourself informed. The CDC website (www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu) website immediately publishes new information as it becomes available.